Is sunset of renewable energy just over the horizon?

There is no doubt that the trajectory of our country has changed in the past month. Based on the recent election and signals from the incoming Trump administration, the reversal of our nation’s approach to climate change will have significant implications not only nationally, but locally and globally.

In mid-October I attended REV2024, the annual conference organized by Renewable Energy Vermont and sponsored by numerous businesses involved with renewable energy development. Renewable energy, including wind, solar, hydro and geothermal power generation, is key to reducing our dependence on greenhouse gas-producing fossil fuels for our electricity, heating and transportation needs.

While the current Biden administration encouraged renewable energy development through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act, the incoming administration has openly promised not only to end those efforts but to move in the opposite direction promoting fossil fuel consumption. President-elect Trump’s selection of Chris Wright, a CEO of a fracking company and a climate change denier, for energy secretary portends serious backtracking on efforts to fight global warming.

In the meantime, we will see more droughts leading to wildfires, more extreme weather events leading to floods and mudslides, and longer periods of extreme heat leading to heat-related fatalities, all of which will cost lives and increase the cost of recovery efforts. With the loss of federal support, it will fall to the states which recognize the seriousness of the situation to take up the cause of fighting climate change.

While the outcome of the election was still uncertain at the time of the conference, presenters spoke to the current state of renewable energy development and the challenges that must be overcome. Allison Clements, a commissioner on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, emphasized the need to move to an electric energy economy, calling it “the backbone of our modern society.” She noted that our inherited generation systems remain an obstacle to developing clean generation systems, and fossil fuel companies will continue to have a larger influence on public policy than the renewable sector. Furthermore, continued growth of renewables will require making the existing grid more efficient as well as building new infrastructure for transmission.

During the last session of the Vermont legislature, a significant change was made to the Renewable Energy Standard. State Senator Chris Bray, chair of the Senate Natural Resources and Energy Committee, and Representative Laura Sibilia, vice-chair of the House Environment and Energy Committee, spoke about the changes in Vermont’s energy policy. The Renewable Energy Standard set a requirement in 2015 that every Vermont electricity distribution utility would have to produce 75 percent of its electric demand from renewable generation by 2032. As of 2022 three utilities, Burlington Electric, Swanton Electric and Washington Electric Co-op, claimed to be 100 percent renewable using solar, wind, hydro and biomass, i.e. burning wood. In 2024, the standard was upgraded to require every utility to source 100 percent of its electricity demand from renewable generation by 2035. This achievement would be the foundation for our state’s transition from fossil fuels to clean electricity for transportation and heating, the major sectors contributing to greenhouse gas emissions.

In addition to the Renewable Energy Standard upgrade, the legislature also passed, over Governor Scott’s veto, the Affordable Heat Act, originally known as the Clean Heat Standard. This controversial legislation would require importers of fossil fuels to finance methods of reducing the fossil fuel consumption of their customers by weatherization, heat pumps and advanced wood heating.

The big unknown in this plan is whether the consequential increase in the cost of fuel would be offset by the savings in the reduction of fuel use and whether the increase could be equitably distributed across households based on their energy burden. Energy burden is the percentage of household income devoted to heating and cooling. While Vermont households with lower incomes typically use less energy than those with higher incomes, lower-income households spend considerably higher percentages of their income on energy.

The Clean Heat Standard is not yet fully implemented because the Affordable Heat Act requires the Public Utility Commission to design the system, estimate the effect on heating costs to the consumer and report back to the legislature, which will then either approve the plan or go back to the drawing board. Considering the change in the political makeup of the legislature on Nov. 5, its ability to override another veto is unlikely.

There are other opportunities currently available to help Vermonters reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. Efficiency Vermont and Vermont Gas Systems still have incentives for home weatherization, heat pump installations, heat pump water heaters and do-it-yourself energy improvements.

One breakout session at the conference featured community geothermal heating systems, which use the constant temperature of the ground to generate heat for multiple buildings. Charlotte’s new town garage uses geothermal heating powered by the solar panels on its roof.

The panels produce more than 90 percent of the electricity used by all five of the buildings owned by the town: the garage, library, town hall, senior center and fire station. Since the library is heated and cooled with air-source heat pumps, it, like the garage, is fossil fuel-free. With additional solar generation, it would be conceivable to build a geothermal system that would heat and cool the other three town-owned buildings in the west village.

This is something Charlotte might look to in the future, assuming that the incentives of the Biden administration remain available.

So, from the federal perspective, the outlook for renewable energy generation and greenhouse gas reduction looks bleak. But there is a silver lining in that the states can continue to transition to renewable sources. Even many red states have come to appreciate the benefits. Iowa produces 59 percent of its electricity by wind. Texas produces 28 percent from wind and 8 percent from solar and leads the nation in total megawatt-hours of renewable energy production followed by California. According to Yale Climate Connections, South Dakota has the most renewable energy generation by percentage (83 percent), followed by Vermont (76 percent), Washington (74 percent) and Idaho (69 percent).

Progress has been made and will continue despite changes being planned by the Trump administration because renewable energy makes good economic sense. We just have to keep doing our part.

(Mike Yantachka is a member of the Charlotte Energy Committee and a former state representative who served 12 years on House committees responsible for energy policy.)